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Graphophone

The decision journal

Record a decision and your prediction, set a review date, then score the outcome — and track how well-calibrated your confidence is.

We remember our good calls and quietly forget the bad ones, so it's hard to know whether our confidence is worth anything. Graphophone's decision journal fixes that the simple way: write down a decision and what you expect before you know the answer, then come back later and score what actually happened. Over time it shows you how well-calibrated your confidence really is — all on your device.

Recording a decision

From the decision journal, tap to record one and fill in:

  • The decision e.g. "Take the new job offer".
  • What you predict will happen Your honest expectation.
  • Alternatives you considered (optional) — one per line.
  • Confidence How sure you are the prediction is right, on a slider.
  • When to review 30 days, 90 days, or a year, after which the decision surfaces as "ready to review" and you score it (the follow-up is scheduled automatically; you supply the verdict).

A decision is saved as an ordinary journal entry — encrypted, searchable, and exportable like everything else — so it lives alongside the rest of your writing rather than in a separate silo.

Reviewing the outcome

When a decision's review date passes, it surfaces as "ready to review" on Home and in the journal. Open it and score how it went — did your prediction hold up? — and add a short retrospective if you like. The outcome is written back onto the entry, and the decision moves to "reviewed".

Calibration

Once you've scored a few, the journal shows your calibration as a mean Brier score — a standard measure of how well your stated confidence matched how things actually turned out. Lower is better: 0 is perfect, and the app translates the number into plain language (excellent, good, fair, or over- or under-confident).

The point isn't a score for its own sake — it's the feedback loop. Most people discover they're systematically over-confident; seeing it, gently, is how you start predicting more honestly.

Privacy

Decisions, predictions, outcomes, and the calibration maths all stay on your device, sealed in the same encryption as the rest of your journal. Nothing is sent anywhere unless you opt in, and it's all included in your Markdown export.

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